Bloodlines of the 21^st Century

by Jay Leimbach

Will the Northern Dancer and Mr. Prospector male lines continue to dominate into the

next century?

It is no secret that the Northern Dancer and Mr. Prospector male lines have dominated

the breed for the past two decades. Yet history cautions us that dominance in the

male line can be fleeting, and we should not be too quick to assume that the great

sires of the 21st Century will grow from these two lines.

Lexington was the champion sire in North America no fewer than sixteen times during

the 19th Century. But by the turn of the 20th Century his line had disappeared as

Domino, Fair Play, and Ben Brush emerged as the dominant male lines. They, in turn,

were soon supplanted by the likes of Teddy, Hyperion, and Phalaris bloodlines

imported from Europe.

Teddy's descendants Sir Gallahad III, Bull Dog, and Bull Lea dominated the stallion

ranks for two decades and produced Triple Crown winners Gallant Fox, Omaha, Armed,

and Citation, and Kentucky Derby winners Gallahadion, Lawrin and Hoop Jr. Hyperion's

male descendants in America included Swaps, Pensive, Chateaugay, Kelso, Forego, and

Exceller.

But the descendants of Teddy and Hyperion largly failed to breed on, as the likes

of Bold Ruler, Princequillo, and Ribot became more prominent in the tail-male. Yet

just a few decades later these three bloodlines in turn have been overwhelmed by the

landslide success of Northern Dancer and Mr. Prospector. And it should be noted that

these two stallions did not even begin their stud careers in Kentucky.

Northern Dancer spent his stud career in Ontario and Maryland, while Mr. Prospector

began in Florida before moving to Kentucky in mid-career. Neither started their stud

careers with the greatest opportunities, and no one could have imagined the

influence they would come to exert on the breed.

If history repeats itself, (and it usually does), we might look for some less

heralded male lines to blossom in the 21st Century. As to why the great lines should

fade so dramatically in the past, we can only speculate.

There is a natural ebb and flow of power in nature, and a curious human parallel

here. Two thousand years ago the civilizations in Egypt, Greece, China, and Peru

were the most advanced on the planet. But these great cultures all fell into decline

and the powerful nations of the future grew from much humbler beginnings.

Perhaps the great horses like Man o' War (by Fair Play), Citation (by Bull Lea), and

Secretariat (by Bold Ruler) represent the optimum combination of genes from their

respective bloodlines, and any further shuffling of their genetic deck of cards only

breaks up their strong hands. In fact, each was by the best sire of his era, and we

can only conclude that such great racehorses tend to be the culmination of a great

bloodline rather than the foundation for a future one.

Turning our attention to the present we might look at the top sires of 1998. In

recent years the sons of Mr. Prospector have dominated in North America, but in '98

five of the top six on the General Sire List were Northern Dancer line, while only

one of the top ten was Prospector line - Cryptoclearance at #8.

Deputy Minister (bred in Canada) has led the General Sire List in each of the past

two seasons, and he and Storm Cat are looking more and more like the heirs to the

Northern Dancer line in North America, while Sadler's Wells is the perennial leader

in Europe. Furthermore, Deputy Minister's sons Silver Deputy, Salt Lake, and Dehere

are all off to fast starts at stud. Storm Cat was the leading juvenile sire for the

fourth time last year, and he has many promising young sons now at stud as well.

Mr. Prospector's sons Forty Niner and Afleet have both been sent to Japan, and his

sons Gulch and Seeking The Gold have tailed off somewhat after fast starts at stud.

This leaves Fappiano and his sons Cryptoclearance, Quiet American, and Unbridled as

the most vital link to the Prospector line.

However, Forty Niner's sons End Sweep (#1), Tactical Advantage (#3), and Twining

(#6) were all among the leading freshman sires of '98 and will bear watching.

Taking a look at the larger picture we find that among the top 25 sires of 98,

Northern Dancer line stallions occupied eight spots, and Mr. Prospector seven. The

Nasrullah and Turn-to lines provided three each. All four are Phalaris line, as were

23 of the top 25.

Of the top 100 sires of ‘98, the Northern Dancer line held a slim 27 to 26 lead over

the Mr. Prospector line, while the Nasrullah line, primarily through Seattle Slew and

Blushing Groom, held strong with 19 of the top 100. The Turn-to male line accounted

for 8, meaning that 80 of the top 100 sires came from these four lines alone.

Among outcross sires (non-Phalaris line), the Damascus and Ribot lines again led the

way with six and five representatives each among the top 100 sires. Horse of the Year

Skip Away is a great-grandson of Damascus and his iron-horse feats over the past four

years probably make him the greatest hope for the Damascus line in the next century.

He is also a complete outcross to Northern Dancer and Mr. Prospector. Gilded Time, a

grandson of Damascus, was the leading freshman sire of 1997.

Ribot and his heirs Graustark, Alleged, Lost Code, and Pleasant Colony have not thus

far left a viable male line, and may become more influential as broodmare-sires.

Kentucky Derby winner Go For Gin (by Cormorant) offers promise as his stud career

begins at Claiborne Farm.

The Man o'War line is hanging by the slender thread of In Reality blood--whose son

Relaunch has several promising new sons at stud like Honour and Glory, in addition to

his sons Skywalker and Waquoit.

Broad Brush, from the old Domino line, has ranked as the leading non-Phalaris line

sire in the world over the past five years. His best sons Concem (Breeder's Cup

Classic winner) and Schossberg (at Windfields in Canada) have not yet had time to

prove themselves at stud.

Former Horse of the Year, Holy Bull, had his first crop race in '98 and he produced

four stakes winners. Holy Bull descends distantly from the old Himyar male line that

produced Domino, Dr. Fager, and Broad Brush, and he offers a complete outcross to the

blood of Northern Dancer, Mr. Prospector, and Nasrullah.

Buckpasser, a son of Tom Fool, was a truly great racehorse and a fine sire. But his

greatest contribution at stud has been as a broodmare-sire, not as a sire of sires.

His grandson Silver Charm, Kentucky Derby winner of 1997, probably offers the

greatest chance of keeping this male line alive.

Buckpasser's success as a broodmare-sire raises an important historical fact. When stallions become great broodmare-sires, this usually signals the waning of their male line influence. Sir Gallahad III and Bull Lea from the Teddy line were many times champion broodmare-sires, but their male lines are long gone. Princequillo, Graustark, Hoist The Flag, Alydar and Secretariat have been among the very best broodmare-sires of their generation, but all have seen their male lines dramatically fade.

Now we find that Mr. Prospector has led the broodmare-sire list in each of the past

three years. It remains to be seen if his male line is strong enough to escape the

fate of the other leading broodmare-sires.

Meantime, the Nasrullah male line remains remarkably long-lived and widespread.

Originally it was his son Bold Ruler who brought this line to prominence, but it

continues to flourish through less celebrated branches like Blushing Groom, Caro,

Riverman, Flying Paster, and Naskra. And the Bold Ruler line still survives through

Bold Ruckus and Seattle Slew--whose sons A.P.Indy, Capote, and General Meeting are

now going strong at stud.

The Blushing Groom line deserves special mention, since no fewer than five of his

sons ranked among the top 35 on last year's General Sire List: Runaway Groom, Mt.

Livermore, Rahy, Nashwan, and Rainbow Quest. Blushing Groom is by the unheralded

sire Red God, and may be a perfect example of a modest bloodline about to blossom.

The Caro branch of the Nasrullah line has likewise flourished from modest origins.

With Approval (Canadian Horse of the Year), Cozzene, Kaldoun, Tejano, and In Excess

represent five different branches of the Caro line which continue to produce major

stakes winners.

The Turn-to line has quietly flourished in recent years, and continues to produce a

surprising number of classic contenders. At the same time, Turn-to line sires have

not been as successful as broodmare-sires, which historically may bode well for

their future. Roberto and Halo, both sons of Hail To Reason, have been the mainstays,

along with Cox's Ridge and Sir Gaylord. And, Cure The Blues (by Stop The Music)

enjoyed a big year in '98, while three of his sons ranked among the leading freshman

sires.

The Turn-to line has several fine 3-year-olds in action this year, including last

year's juvenile champion Answer Lively, Prime Timber (by Sultry Song), Louisiana

Derby winner Kimberlite Pipe (by Cure The Blues), and the very fast Straight Deal

who, like Answer Lively, is a grandson of Halo.

The lcecapade line could be another bloodline to watch in the future. lcecapade was

a brilliant miler bred on the identical cross as Northem Dancer, being by Nearctic

out of a Native Dancer mare. In fact he was a half-brother to the great filly

Ruffian. His sons Wild Again and Clever Trick have been remarkably good sires, and

many of Icecapade's grandsons are now beginning their stud careers.

It is impossible to ignore the fact that Northern Dancer, Nasrullah, Turn-to, and

Icecapade are all Nearco line stallions. In fact, 57 of the top 100 sires in 1998

were Nearco line stallions, a remarkable development considering that Nearco stood

at stud just fifty years ago, and never stood in North America. With the prevalence

of his blood it seems likely to flourish into the 21st Century, but whether the

dominant branch will be through Northern Dancer, Nasrullah, Turn-to, or Icecapade

remains to be seen.

Meanwhile, there will always be a need for outcross blood to keep the breed vigorous

and healthy. While the Ribot, Princequillo, and Hyperion lines appear to be fading,

the likes of Skip Away, Silver Charm, and Holy Bull may be rising to take their

place. Significantly, all three are Florida-breds, which offers hope to regional

breeders across North America, and reminds us that Cinderella stories still come

true.

Canadian Thoroughbred 1999 Queen's Plate Souvenir Issue